RSS GAS meeting on Statistical Climate Reconstruction and Climate
Change Prediction
Wednesday 12. November, 14:00 - 17:00
University of Bath, Bath, UK. room 3W 4.7
How to get to Bath University: See
http://www.bath.ac.uk/getting-here/This half-day meeting is organised by the General Applications Section
of the Royal Society and supported by the Avon local RSS group, the
Environmental Statistics Section of the RSS and the Bath Institute for
Complex Systems.
Speakers
GABI HEGERL, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK
Anthropogenic climate change: Using the past to learn about the future
Abstract: Estimates of the probability density function of climate
sensitivity can be derived from temperature records over the 20th
century and the last Millennium. This information can then be used
towards predictions of future changes. Similarly, observed changes in
extreme temperature and precipitation can be used to evaluate climate
model simulations.
JONTY ROUGIER, Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK
Statistical climate reconstruction using a GCM
Abstract: We use a general circulation model (GCM) to reconstruct
North American climate 6ka BP, in the mid-Holocene. The model is
calibrated to reconstructed temperature where we have it, and provides
a physically consistent method for extrapolating the reconstruction to
other spatial locations, and other climate variables such as
precipitation and GDD5. This work is part of the PalaeoQUMP project.
BREAK FOR TEA/COFFEE
ANDREW PARNELL, Statistics Department, University College Dublin, Ireland
Title: Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction
Synopsis: Changes in pollen samples taken from lake sediment can tell
us about past climate. Sophisticated statistical techniques are
required as there is considerable uncertainty in both dating the
pollen and in quantifying the relationship between pollen and climate.
Pre-registration is recommended. You can register by contacting Carole
Negre by email (
C.Negre@...) or by phone (01225 386998). The
meeting is free and open to all.
--
Nicole Augustin
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, BATH BA2 7AY, UK
01225 318494
